Apophis 2029: Fact-Checking the Hypothetical Threat of 2036

This note is a fact-check of the article "Apophis 2029 - Threat to Humanity 2036", which considers a hypothetical scenario in which the asteroid Apophis could lead to catastrophic consequences in 2036. Below, that scenario is reviewed against the official scientific position.

I. Chronology of threat closure

2013: Radar observations by NASA's Goldstone observatory significantly refined the orbit of Apophis. The possibility of collision with Earth was fully excluded by the official scientific community.

2021: Joint radar observations by Goldstone and Green Bank Observatory further narrowed the uncertainty ellipse. As a result, Apophis was fully removed from the Risk List of the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (ESA NEOCC). Collision risk is excluded for at least the next 100 years.

II. Analysis of the stated threats

1. Hypothesis: Change of spin state and the Yarkovsky effect

Claim: A collision with a satellite would change the rotation of Apophis, chaotically altering the Yarkovsky effect and shifting its orbit by 500-800 meters by 2036.

Scientific facts:

• Scale of masses: The mass of Apophis is approximately 61 million tonnes (6.1 x 10^10 kg). The mass of even a large upper stage does not exceed 10-20 tonnes. In a collision at ~7 km/s, the impulse transferred to the asteroid would be on the order of 10^-8 - 10^-7 m/s.
• Threshold of influence: Shifting the trajectory by hundreds of meters requires a velocity change of at least 10^-4 m/s. The impact of a technogenic object is weaker than the required threshold by a factor of 1000-10000.
• Current state: Apophis is already in a tumbling rotation around a non-principal axis. This fact is accounted for in NASA and ESA models. A micro-impact would not create cumulative displacement capable of overcoming the current uncertainty ellipse.

2. Hypothesis: Local ablation and thermal asymmetry

Claim: Evaporation of satellite materials would deposit on Apophis, change surface thermal conductivity, and amplify the chaotic nature of the Yarkovsky effect.

Scientific facts:

• Probability of contact: A study by Schettino and Rossi (2026, The Planetary Science Journal) showed that even in the worst geometric configurations, the minimum distance to catalogued objects in high orbits would be 4 to 29 km. Direct collision would not occur.
• Scale of influence: Even when passing through a cloud of microscopic particles, the mass deposited on the asteroid's surface (over 400,000 m2) would be negligible compared to its own thermal inertia. Such fluctuations are already included in the uncertainty of current models and do not move the trajectory beyond safe limits.

3. Hypothesis: Plasma-electromagnetic interaction

Claim: A cloud of ionized particles from destroyed satellites would create a Lorentz force, giving the asteroid additional unaccounted impulse.

Scientific facts:

• Physics of the process: The Lorentz force acts on electrically charged particles. For it to affect the trajectory, the asteroid itself must acquire a significant net electric charge.
• Modeling data: Studies by the ESA/ESTEC group (Cipriani et al., presented at EPSC congresses) specifically model the surface charge of Apophis during its passage through radiation belts. The conclusion is unambiguous: although surface charging of the regolith will be recorded as a scientific phenomenon, it does not create a mechanical impulse capable of shifting Apophis.

4. The "keyhole" threat of 2036

Claim: Any perturbation could return Apophis into a resonant "keyhole" leading to collision in 2036.

Scientific facts:

• The 2036 "keyhole" was relevant to uncertainty models of the early 2000s. Modern data (2013 and 2021) exclude its reach not only under nominal passage, but under any perturbation that orbital debris could cause.
• Wiegert and Hyatt (2024) calculated the upper bound of impulse from natural uncatalogued meter-class objects. Since technogenic debris (less than 50 cm) is substantially less massive, its influence is strictly below this already calculated and safe upper bound.

Summary: the situation is under control

Questions of planetary security leave no room for conjecture: they are resolved through rigorous mathematical calculation, independent data audit, and continuous monitoring. Hypothetical catastrophe scenarios are based on overestimating the influence of technogenic factors and underestimating the scale of the asteroid itself. At present, all scientists and policy statements agree: Apophis is safe in 2029 and 2036.