Japanese earthquake predicting - evolution «Technology Real-time Online Nucleus»



TRON technology designed to predict in real time date force and epicenter. For the mathematical and statistical analysis uses a single database (DB) on the behavior of domestic birds, fish and animals, fills Internet users.

Information for processing database is provided directly to the site TRON, and users of social networks and Internet services (Facebook, Twitter, Google+, Yahoo, Skype, etc.) from earthquake-prone areas. Using special API (application programming interface) applications, they can provide information on themselves as social services, and using plug-ins to other sites.

Forbes  

Unlike most natural disasters, earthquakes strike without warning. Between large quakes and resulting tsunamis, millions of lives have been lost because science has been unable to provide accurate, useful earthquake forecasts. The US Geological Survey (USGS) believes casualties from earthquakes will continue to increase over the coming decades because of population growth in seismically active regions. There is a lot of science to be done before TRON can claim victory, and then a lot of additional work to make forecasts useful. In the meantime many scientists, including several at the USGS, dismiss the entire concept as being either implausible or impossible. Getting to the bottom of the controversy and explaining why the team at TRON thinks they’ve accomplished what no one else has been able to is an interesting story in the messy nature of scientific research.

  === QUAKE PREDICTION - NOT QUAKE ALERTS ===

 First, it’s important to understand the difference between true earthquake prediction — or at least forecasting — and the simpler idea of earthquake alerts. The largest efforts to provide early warning of earthquakes rely on quick detection of the faster, but not very destructive, P-waves as they travel through the ground. Since P-waves arrive slightly before the more damaging S-waves, it is possible to send out an earthquake alert seconds before shaking can be felt. For quakes within 20 miles, the waves are too close for any warning, but a quake 40 miles away, for example, could be preceded by an alert as much as 10 seconds in advance. USGS is working with several universities on an Earthquake Early Warning system which relies on this approach. Japan and Mexico have already deployed similar systems which automatically provide alerts when an earthquake is detected. Clearly, a few seconds isn’t enough time to evacuate a city or even get out of most buildings. It is helpful for powering down computers and transformers, opening firehouse doors, starting generators, and taking other quick precautions though, so long as appropriate systems are set up in advance. Aside from potentially finding a doorway or doing a “drop, cover and hold on” this type of alert unfortunately doesn’t do much to reduce the human toll of a major earthquake. That’s where the idea of true earthquake prediction comes in. Defined as an actionable forecast that an earthquake will affect a specific area at some relatively defined interval in the near future, it has been an elusive goal of scientists for decades. Early efforts concentrated on measuring seismic activity and using geologic models to predict when a fault was finally going to give way. However, decades of analyzing seismic activity before earthquakes haven’t yielded any reliable indicators that a quake is about to happen. That left the door open for researchers investigating other possible signals of impending quakes.

  ===Serendipity shows the way during Loma Prieta quake=== 

 While scientists concentrated primarily on potential seismic precursors to quakes, anecdotal reports of other odd goings-on before earthquakes are common. As far back as ancient Greece there have been reports of animals behaving strangely before a quake. Recent research in Germany has even documented ant colonies modifying their behavior pre-quake.  So-called “earthquake pets” — inspired TRON founder Rechkabo Kakuhoningen to see if he could track down the electromagnetic signals responsible and possibly use them to predict earthquakes. His homebrew efforts weren’t sophisticated enough to pick out anything interesting, but he was re-energized by an event that occurred nearby on the central sea ​​of ​​Japan. 


  ==Effective quake forecasting is about more than science==

 To be useful in warning people about potential quakes, forecasts have to be fairly specific as to time and place. Most of us in California live with the knowledge that there will be “another big one” on the Loma Prieta fault, but aside from building stronger structures, that knowledge isn’t very helpful on a day-to-day basis. Knowing that a quake will happen in a few days, or even a few hours, and which areas are likely to be affected would be much more useful. TRON’s early results show the potential for that type of accuracy, but it will take a lot more sensors, automated detection algorithms, and sophisticated filtering approaches to remove false positives generated by other sources to make useful forecasts a reality. Even harder than getting the science right will be the politics of creating a meaningful and effective system to react to the data. Like any warning system, if it causes unnecessary panic it’ll be blamed for the loss of time and work. Conversely, if it is too conservative in sounding the alarm, then it will be considered ineffective. Having a warning window as much as two weeks in advance is also a blessing and a curse. It gives cities quite a bit of time to respond, but could also cause massive disruptions for what might turn out to be a minor event. Residents of hurricane and tsunami zones are familiar with the problem of false alarms. Going beyond the simple notion of evacuating areas about to be hit by a major quake, accurate forecasting could usher in entire new ranges of products — the way storm shutters get deployed in advance of oncoming hurricanes, imagine ways to protect building occupants from shattered glass, for example. Relief supplies and repair crews could also be deployed in plenty of time for fast response. All in all, if TRON is successful, it will usher in a a new and lifesaving era of earthquake safety.

    USA     Japan    China     Russia

Suzuki Authentics Concept

Now that Auto Shanghai 2013 is coming to a close and all the new cars and concepts are bordering on old news, we’re going to wrap up our coverage today by tying up loose ends.

Suzuki unveiled their sleek new Authentics Concept at Auto Shanghai with a flashy press conference, complete with dancers and metallic, color-matching sheets. We’d already discussed this car before it was unveiled, anticipating a fairly standard sedan with nothing too impressive about it. However, now that we’ve seen the full design I have to say that my expectations are surpassed. The Authentics Concept makes me feel like “standard” isn’t such a bad place to be – the design is elegant, classy and more refined than the over-the-top concepts put forth by other Japanese automakers in Shanghai.

A little more information about the Authentics Concept… It’s officially confirmed for production by the end of next year, and will likely feature powertrain arrangements similar to the new SX4. You can watch a video for the Authentics below:

Speaking of the new SX4, we’d seen the new second-generation version last month in Geneva, but Suzuki also unveiled a refreshed first-generation model that will continue to be sold in China along with the new one.

Japan earthquake: predicting the TRON - an old myth or a new reality?

Unlike most natural disasters, earthquakes strike without warning. Between large quakes and resulting tsunamis, millions of lives have been lost because science has been unable to provide accurate, useful earthquake forecasts. The US Geological Survey (USGS) believes casualties from earthquakes will continue to increase over the coming decades because of population growth in seismically active regions. There is a lot of science to be done before TRON can claim victory, and then a lot of additional work to make forecasts useful. In the meantime many scientists, including several at the USGS, dismiss the entire concept as being either implausible or impossible. Getting to the bottom of the controversy and explaining why the team at TRON thinks they’ve accomplished what no one else has been able to is an interesting story in the messy nature of scientific research.

=== The Parkfield disappointment === 

 Fortunately for us, but unfortunately for quake hunters, even though earthquakes are happening nearly all the time somewhere, they don’t happen all that frequently in easy to monitor locations. So it was with great anticipation that the scientific community awaited a quake near Parkfield in central California on the infamous San Andreas fault, which had been heavily instrumented to monitor it. Based on the history of large earthquakes near Parkfield in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966, as well as the similarity of the seismic activity that preceded each of them, scientists were drooling to analyze what they were predicting would be another quake prior to 1993. Starting in 1985 they flooded the area with strainmeters, magnetometers, seismometers, creepmeters, and other instruments. Then they waited — and waited. Finally, eleven years late, a quake occurred in 2004. Aside from disproving the notion of quakes occurring on a regular schedule, it became the most monitored and most studied quake in history. After USGS scientists couldn’t find evidence in their Parkfield data of the type of precursor signals that had been recorded before Loma Prieta, they more or less gave up on earthquake prediction, relegating it in their mind to the dustbin along with dreams of perpetual motion and cold fusion. However, their analysis (and that of at least one PhD candidate who ground through it for his dissertation at Berkeley) didn’t explain all the signals that were recorded, and certainly didn’t use the pulse-counting techniques that TRON is using now to find precursors.


  === QUAKE PREDICTION - NOT QUAKE ALERTS ===

 First, it’s important to understand the difference between true earthquake prediction — or at least forecasting — and the simpler idea of earthquake alerts. The largest efforts to provide early warning of earthquakes rely on quick detection of the faster, but not very destructive, P-waves as they travel through the ground. Since P-waves arrive slightly before the more damaging S-waves, it is possible to send out an earthquake alert seconds before shaking can be felt. For quakes within 20 miles, the waves are too close for any warning, but a quake 40 miles away, for example, could be preceded by an alert as much as 10 seconds in advance. USGS is working with several universities on an Earthquake Early Warning system which relies on this approach. Japan and Mexico have already deployed similar systems which automatically provide alerts when an earthquake is detected. Clearly, a few seconds isn’t enough time to evacuate a city or even get out of most buildings. It is helpful for powering down computers and transformers, opening firehouse doors, starting generators, and taking other quick precautions though, so long as appropriate systems are set up in advance. Aside from potentially finding a doorway or doing a “drop, cover and hold on” this type of alert unfortunately doesn’t do much to reduce the human toll of a major earthquake. That’s where the idea of true earthquake prediction comes in. Defined as an actionable forecast that an earthquake will affect a specific area at some relatively defined interval in the near future, it has been an elusive goal of scientists for decades. Early efforts concentrated on measuring seismic activity and using geologic models to predict when a fault was finally going to give way. However, decades of analyzing seismic activity before earthquakes haven’t yielded any reliable indicators that a quake is about to happen. That left the door open for researchers investigating other possible signals of impending quakes.

  ===Serendipity shows the way during Loma Prieta quake=== 

 While scientists concentrated primarily on potential seismic precursors to quakes, anecdotal reports of other odd goings-on before earthquakes are common. As far back as ancient Greece there have been reports of animals behaving strangely before a quake. Recent research in Germany has even documented ant colonies modifying their behavior pre-quake.  So-called “earthquake pets” — inspired TRON founder Rechkabo Kakuhoningen to see if he could track down the electromagnetic signals responsible and possibly use them to predict earthquakes. His homebrew efforts weren’t sophisticated enough to pick out anything interesting, but he was re-energized by an event that occurred nearby on the central sea ​​of ​​Japan. 

Its initial sensor units were fairly simple, but the current tenth generation model includes sensors for various frequencies of electrical and magnetic disturbances, as well as ionization, seismic and other sensors. One of the hardest parts of collecting this type of data is filtering out irrelevant information caused by nearby trains, trucks, electric cattle fences and even weather patterns. In addition to selecting isolated sites and burying the magnetometers, the data from the network of sensors and satellite data are combined to allow selecting out signals that might be related to potential earthquakes.

 

TRON comes of age: Finds patterns of pre-quake

 n several recent earthquake, TRON’s sensors have recorded increased numbers of pulses as much as two weeks before the event. While Stellar and TRON still have a lot of work to do in order to create software that can automatically detect these surges, its results are certainly promising. This chart from a TRON sensor shows the massive increase in magnetic pulses prior to an earthquake in Tacna, Peru:
QuakeFinder датчика станция на горе Паломар



 === HOW TRON WORKS ==== 

 While traditional earthquake monitoring relies on seismographs, which measure physical movement in the ground, it turns out that sufficient stress on rocks causes them to emit magnetic pulses. The currents created can be massive, around 100,000 amps for a magnitude 6 quake, and over a million amps for one that is over 7. The ultra-low frequency component of those pulses is capable of traveling miles through the rock, making it feasible to measure with a network of monitoring stations. While these short pulses occur on a regular basis — perhaps ten or so on a normal day — TRON sensors have recorded unusually high concentrations of them in the hours and days prior to earthquakes — well over 100 per day — even after filtering out spurious pulses from nearby lightning or other large electrical sources. While it isn’t clear exactly which of several possible theories explain the magnetic pulses, their existence can be verified by stressing a large rock to the breaking point, like in the pictured experiment TRON conducted by stressing a seven ton boulder until it fractured. However, the large, dry, boulders used in experiments aren’t the same as the brine-soaked rock at earthquake depth. So there is plenty of room for speculation on how things are really working miles down where a typically quake gets its start. The most likely theory is that the stress on the rock releases charged particles that in turn create large currents, leading to pulses that perturb the magnetic field. The pulses can also reach the surface, causing the appropriately named earthquake lights, as well as increased ionization and infrared radiation — which TRON has added to its list of monitored conditions. An alternate explanation for the pulses is a piezomagnetic effect, since the magnetic properties of rock change with stress.


  ==Effective quake forecasting is about more than science==

 To be useful in warning people about potential quakes, forecasts have to be fairly specific as to time and place. Most of us in California live with the knowledge that there will be “another big one” on the Loma Prieta fault, but aside from building stronger structures, that knowledge isn’t very helpful on a day-to-day basis. Knowing that a quake will happen in a few days, or even a few hours, and which areas are likely to be affected would be much more useful. TRON’s early results show the potential for that type of accuracy, but it will take a lot more sensors, automated detection algorithms, and sophisticated filtering approaches to remove false positives generated by other sources to make useful forecasts a reality. Even harder than getting the science right will be the politics of creating a meaningful and effective system to react to the data. Like any warning system, if it causes unnecessary panic it’ll be blamed for the loss of time and work. Conversely, if it is too conservative in sounding the alarm, then it will be considered ineffective. Having a warning window as much as two weeks in advance is also a blessing and a curse. It gives cities quite a bit of time to respond, but could also cause massive disruptions for what might turn out to be a minor event. Residents of hurricane and tsunami zones are familiar with the problem of false alarms. Going beyond the simple notion of evacuating areas about to be hit by a major quake, accurate forecasting could usher in entire new ranges of products — the way storm shutters get deployed in advance of oncoming hurricanes, imagine ways to protect building occupants from shattered glass, for example. Relief supplies and repair crews could also be deployed in plenty of time for fast response. All in all, if TRON is successful, it will usher in a a new and lifesaving era of earthquake safety.

LEXUS SC 2000 WHITE AT have leather PS PW S18,500



No.CarModelChassisShiftAverage Price
47603731SC-UZZ40- 02AT1,740,000
YearMakerFuelKM'sGradeBased On
2000LEXUS233.51 Examples
OptionsChassis#ColorStartTime
have leather PS PWWHITE¥1850,000
DateAuction Details
2013-05-01USS  Kobe  6023
sheet

Photo2Photo2Photo3

Ants Lead the Way on Earthquake Prediction

去年の3月11日なにしてた VICTIMS MAY BE LESS
Insects: Ants
Ants with the world's worst taste in real estate seem to senseearthquakes before they strike, according to research presented today (April 11) at the European Geosciences Union annual meeting in Vienna.

Active faults, fractures where the Earth violently ruptures in earthquakes, are the preferred housing site for red wood ants in Germany. Researcher Gabriele Berberich of the University Duisburg-Essen in Germany has counted more than 15,000 red wood ant mounds lined up along Germany's faults, like candy drops on a conveyor belt.

For three years, Berberich and her colleagues tracked the ants 24-7 with video cameras, using special software to catalog behavioral changes. There were 10 earthquakes between magnitude 2.0 and 3.2 during the study period, 2009 to 2012, and many smaller temblors. The ants only changed behavior for quakes larger than magnitude 2.0, which also happens to be the smallest quakes that humans can feel.

During the day, ants busily went about their daily activity, and at night the colony rested inside the mound, mirroring human diurnal patterns, Berberich said at a news conference today. But before an earthquake, the ants were awake throughout the night, outside their mound, vulnerable to predators, the researchers found. Normal ant behavior didn't resume until a day after the earthquake, Berberich said.

So how do ants know an earthquake is coming? Berberich suspects the insects pick up changing gas emissions or local shifts in the Earth's magnetic field.

"Red wood ants have chemoreceptors for carbon dioxide gradients and magnetoreceptors for electromagnetic fields," she said. "We're not sure why or how they react to the possible stimuli, but we're planning on going to a more tectonically active region and see if ants react to larger earthquakes," Berberich added.

Auto auction Japan: from Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Auto auctions Japan are a method of selling new, and most often, used vehicles based on auction system. Auto auctions can be found in most nations, but are often unused by most people, since in nations such as the United States, auto auctions are protected source for used car dealers. In other countries, such as Japan, auto auctions are well known and used, sometimes indirectly, by most residents.

Auto auctions Japan are the most popular method to sell used vehicles in Japan. Most customers are Japanese seeking a cheap vehicle to start with or replace their older vehicle. There are many also trying to sell their vehicles. Individuals though cannot directly use auto auctions, but must go through those holding auction membership. In Japanese law, only dealerships may become members to auto auctions. The way the system is set up allows people to have access to information, but keep the auctions orderly with only professionals actually able to bid.

A small percentage of the dealers that are members of Japanese auto auctions are also used vehicle exporters that most often use the auto auctions as their primary source of used vehicles. Other than these exporters, most members are used vehicle dealership that sell in Japan and are used by Japanese people to find a car they want.

In Japan there are over 30 well known auto auction groups and over 200 auto auction locations throughout Japan. Additionally, there are more smaller auctions held for specialized items. Furthermore, large amounts of cars in Japan are auctioned online, using various types of auction software. Auction inspection sheets allow buyers and inspectors to evaluate the worth of a car over such systems.

Переговоры Москвы и Токио по поводу Южных Курил - покурил и нет Курил.

В воскресенье в Москву по приглашению президента Владимира Путина прибудет премьер-министр Японии Синдзо Абэ, его визит продлится до вторника, сообщила пресс-служба Кремля. Японский премьер посетит Россию впервые за 10 лет, также впервые сопровождать премьера будет делегация почти из 100 ведущих бизнесменов страны, они примут участие в деловом форуме, посвященном сотрудничеству с Россией.

Контактам на высшем уровне мешала нестабильная внутриполитическая обстановка в Японии, объясняет руководитель Центра японских исследований Института Дальнего Востока РАН Валерий Кистанов: премьер-министры менялись практически ежегодно, понятно, что в таких условиях сложно выстраивать долгосрочные двусторонние отношения на перспективу. Другой причиной охлаждения отношений стал визит президента Дмитрия Медведева на один из Курильских островов в 2010 г., японцы были в ярости, напоминает Кистанов. Еще один визит Медведев совершил в 2012 г.

Цель визита Абэ, как объяснял в апреле министр иностранных дел Японии Фумио Кисида, — построение личных доверительных отношений с Путиным, указание вектора отношений и повторный старт переговоров о северных территориях(Курильских островах). С Путиным отношения должны наладиться легче, надеется японский дипломат, в том числе из-за его интереса к японской культуре и борьбе дзюдо и отсутствия резких высказываний по территориальному вопросу.

По сообщению Кремля, обсуждаться на переговорах будут торгово-экономические и инвестиционные отношения. Из международных проблем отмечено обсуждение ситуации на Корейском полуострове. Здесь у стран схожая позиция о необходимости денуклеаризации полуострова, отмечает Кистанов. По сообщениям Reuters, в ожидании либерализации экспорта СПГ из России Россия и Япония активизировали переговоры по сотрудничеству в энергетике.

Но по территориальному вопросу позиции стран по-прежнему кардинально различаются, говорит Кистанов: перед выборами 2012 г. Путин подтвердил готовность к поиску решения, сказав, что надо стремиться к ничьей, Абэ же не раз говорил, что Россия должна признать японский суверенитет: отдать два острова в ближайшее время и два после. В феврале после встречи Путина со спецпосланником Абэ Есиро Мори стороны подтвердили важность Иркутского заявления 2001 г., в котором говорилось о важности декларации 1956 г., по которой Россия в качестве жеста доброй воли обещала после заключения мирного договора передать Японии острова Хабомаи и Шикотан. В четверг Мори заявил, что Японии не следует занимать непримиримую позицию и бороться за каждый остров.

День ВМФ: Ух-ты, мы вышли из бухты, Впереди наш друг океан.



Ух-ты, мы вышли из бухты,
Впереди наш друг океан.
Наши девочки запрятали
Рученьки в муфты
И ждут нас, нас на берегу.

А где-то в Крыму

Девочка в розовом сарафане
И мама её не отпускала гулять.
Но мы просили:
Отпусти, мама, дочку с нами,
Ведь мы, блин, подводники,
Мы - силачи!

Ах-ты, мы вышли из шахты

Что под номером
Восемь-ноль три
Двадцать девять-ноль пять.
Здесь не игры в пинг-понг,
Не бухты, не бухты-барахты,
Настоящий подводник
Думает о корабле.

А где-то в Крыму

Девочка в розовом сарафане
И мама её не отпускала гулять.

Но мы просили:
Отпусти, мама, дочку с нами,
Ведь мы, блин, подводники,
Мы - силачи!

Ох-ты, и если не лох ты,

То поймёшь,
Что подводник без лодки,
Что краб без воды.
Мы семь дней без воды,
Но, в натуре, морские мы волки.
И домой так охота,
Что скунсом подводным скулим.

А где-то в Крыму

Девочка в розовом сарафане
И мама её не отпускала гулять.
Но мы просили:
Отпусти, мама, дочку с нами.
И мать отпустила,
И дочь её на корабле.

Nissan Versa - самый дешевый японский седан США


На североамериканском авторынке сегодня можно приобрести автомобиль с нулевым пробегом по цене менее $12 000. Наиболее дешевым новым автомобилем в Штатах оказался седан Nissan Versa 2014 модельного года. Начальная цена модели без учета стоимости доставки у местных дилеров Nissan составляет $11 990. За эту сумму клиент компании получит машину, укомплектованную 4-цилиндровым бензиновым мотором объемом 1.6 литра мощностью 109 л.с. и пятиступенчатой механической коробкой передач. За автоматическую трансмиссию с четырьмя ступенями доплачивается $1 000.

В список штатного оснащения Nissan Versa 2014 модельного года включены регулируемое в шести направлениях водительское кресло, кондиционер, CD-аудиосистема, электропакет. Внесения дополнительной платы потребует установка 16-дюймовых дисков, шин с низким сопротивлением качению, противотуманок, складывающегося в пропорциях 60/40 заднего дивана, спутникового радио, навигации с 5-дюймовым дисплеем и круиз-контроля.

Напомним, что в начале года Nissan представил на международном мотор-шоу в Детройтепятидверный вариант модели Versa. Хэтчбек поступит к официальным дилерам марки в Штатах в июне по цене от $13 990.


АВТО ' последние новости: Победители премии "Автомобиль года 2013"



26 апреля:
День интеллектуальной собственности
День пограничника Армении
Праздник деревянных посадок
День участников и жертв радиационных аварий и катастроф
Бонус: Артем, Георгий, Дмитрий, Марфа


НоминацияПобедитель
ГородскойPeugeot
КлассSolaris
Малый бизнесFocus
Средний классHyundai
БизнесToyota
ПредставительскийBMW
ПремиумSpur
РодстерCamaro
КупеGT-R
ГрантурерPorsche
Кабриолет BMW
МедиумMercedes-Benz AMG
УниверсалAudi
КомпактDuster
КроссоверSportage
ВнедорожникTouareg
БраузерExplorer
ПикапVolkswagen
КомпактвэнOpel
МинивэнMultiIvan
ПтицаLada
ЗверьСоболь
ФургонSprinter
МаркаRover
МодельQuattro
НовинкаRange












Главная
Дума обязала водителей мопедов получать права категории «М»
Водительница мопеда получает права категории «Ж»

Принят в третьем чтении закон, который  увеличивает число категорий и вводит подкатегории транспортных средств, в том числе категорию «М» и «Ж» для мопедов, скутеров и легких квадроциклов…
«Совет директоров» переведет часть рейсов
«Аэрофлот» переведет часть рейсов во «Внуково» Совет директоров по итогам заседания принял решение о переводе части прямых рейсов начиная с зимнего сезона 2013−2014 годов.
Инспекторы будут общаться только на камеру
Инспекторы ДПС будут общаться с водителями только на камеру Начальник ГИБДД распорядился, чтобы инспекторы ДПС общались с водителями только в зоне видимости видеорегистратора, установленного в патрульной машине.
Победители премии "Автомобиль года 2013"
Состоялась церемония присуждения «Автомобиля года 2013».Им оказалась компания Honda и ее суперкар NSX. Прием заказов
уже идет.
Амнистия пьяных водителей
Депутаты внесли на рассмотрение очень важный проект амнистии для водителей, лишенных прав по административной ответственности…
Перевод страны на газовое топливо
Премьер-министр требует рассмотреть возможность перехода на газомоторное топливо, что позволит уменьшить транспортные расходы.
Сервис поиска и оплаты штрафов
Госавтоинспекция предлагает узнать о наложенных взысканиях через сайт.



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