Apophis 2029: Fact-Checking the Hypothetical Threat of 2036
This note is a fact-check of the article "Apophis 2029 - Threat to Humanity 2036" , which considers a hypothetical scenario in which the asteroid Apophis could lead to catastrophic consequences in 2036. Below, that scenario is reviewed against the official scientific position. I. Chronology of threat closure 2013: Radar observations by NASA's Goldstone observatory significantly refined the orbit of Apophis. The possibility of collision with Earth was fully excluded by the official scientific community. 2021: Joint radar observations by Goldstone and Green Bank Observatory further narrowed the uncertainty ellipse. As a result, Apophis was fully removed from the Risk List of the European Space Agency's Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (ESA NEOCC). Collision risk is excluded for at least the next 100 years. II. Analysis of the stated threats 1. Hypothesis: Change of spin state and the Yarkovsky effect Claim: A collision with a satell...