In 1974, the great helmsman, Comrade Mao Zedong, said, "Earthquakes should be predicted by people, not scientists." Mao Zedong said, "We need it," and the Party replied, "We have it." And the first secretary of the district party committee in Haicheng, recently promoted to the level of the second secretary of the Liaoning province, was a devoted party member. When people started coming to his office reporting strange behavior of wild and domestic animals, he understood that action was needed.
Early in the morning on February 4, 1975, the evacuation of residents began in Haicheng district. And by evening, at 19:36, a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 occurred. In an instant, thousands of buildings were reduced to rubble, over 27,000 people were injured, and 2,041 people lost their lives. Horrific consequences. But... as further research showed, without the evacuation order, the number of casualties would have exceeded 150,000 people. This was the world's first predicted earthquake. It could have been followed by a second predicted earthquake. But by 1976, Comrade Mao Zedong was seriously ill, and earthquakes again began to be predicted by scientists. As a result, the 1976 Tangshan earthquake claimed the lives of 300,000 people.
Since then, almost 50 years have passed. Hundreds of thousands of people have died worldwide from earthquakes.
- Spitak, 1988. Armenia. Magnitude 7.2. 25,000 people died.
- Neftegorsk, 1995. Russia. Magnitude 7.6. 2,040 people died.
- Port-au-Prince, 2010. Haiti. Magnitude 7. 223,000 people died.
- Sendai, 2011. Japan. Magnitude 9. 18,000 people died.
- Turkey, Syria, 2023. Magnitude 7.8. 52,000 people died.
In the newly formed state of Israel, a patent was issued stating that animals can sense earthquakes. The Soviet Union, whose scientists created a table displaying how many days in advance and at what distance various animals sense earthquakes, no longer exists.
And only scientists - seismologists around the world continue to say the same thing:
- "There is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 earthquake in the Tokyo area within the next 30 years."
Professor Hiroyuki Fujivara. National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention in Japan. - "Deterministic predictions of individual earthquakes with the accuracy necessary to plan evacuation programs are fundamentally impossible."
Seismology community of the United States. - "Even an excellent (hypothetical) prediction method would have questionable social utility, as organized evacuation of urban centers is unlikely to be successful, while panic and other undesirable side effects can be expected."
Seismologist Stathis Stiros, Greece.
Except your conscience and God.