How will the technological confrontation between two superpowers evolve? By applying a combination of the Stochastic Block Model (SBM) and Multiplex Network to the global AI ecosystem, we can obtain not abstract reasoning, but concrete forecasts with timelines and probabilities. Methodology (brief). The model includes ~500-1000 nodes (labs, universities, chipmakers, government agencies, investment funds) and 5 layers of connections: hardware, talent, algorithm, data, capital. SBM tracks the probability of connections between USA / China / ROW (Rest of World) blocks, while multiplexity allows analyzing cascade effects between layers. Forecast 1. Asymmetric Fragmentation Essence: By 2027, the network will enter a state of selective decoupling — hard fragmentation at the hardware and capital levels, but maintaining high connectivity at the algorithm (thanks to open-source) and talent levels. Data: The connectivity parameter B(hardware)_USA,China has already fallen from ...